If August arrives and they still don't itch for football then it's time to bow out. Those who watch the game might heed similar advice.
There can be times when the Premier League seems woefully unlike the hype. Bolton 0 Southampton 1 in September 2001, a dire 4-5-1 fest in my first weeks of reporting on it, almost made me flee back to the gnarled bosom of the Scottish Premier League.
But no competition, not the World Cup nor the Champions League, delivers the same spectacle. With the Premier League's 20th season about to begin, some will cancel their pay-TV subscriptions, bin their season tickets or decide weekend afternoons would be better spent at the garden centre. But not many.
The 2010-11 season was not a vintage edition of the "Best League in the World" (trademark) but 2011-12 promises much better. If relegated Blackpool was the most entertaining side last season, this time the theatre should revolve round the top end of the league. Every one of the leading clubs looks in a position to improve. Manchester City should be more assured, Arsenal more mature, Chelsea more inspired, Liverpool more cohesive, Tottenham more potent. But Manchester United -- who should be more fluent -- remains the team to beat.
Whether the champions retain their status depends less on the impact of Ferguson's new signings -- though his summer transfer business has seemed impressive -- and more on the effect of existing stars. Wayne Rooney had a dismal 2010-11 until February, when an iconic goal against City revived his genius, while Javier Hernandez spent the first part of last season as an impact substitute. A full season of those two, in top form, would make Ferguson's team formidable.
United's right flank was a weakness until Fabio established himself as a more convincing fullback than Rafael, his brother, and Antonio Valencia returned from injury. More from them will also see United improve, while Tom Cleverley and Danny Welbeck, on loan last season, are useful prospects to have back.
That's not to minimise the importance of new arrivals David de Gea, Ashley Young and Phil Jones. Most rests on goalkeeper De Gea and while it's improbable that, in a debut season, a young foreign rookie will entirely fill the gloves of Edwin van der Sar, the Spaniard's pre-season displays have been encouraging. Phil Jones, given Rio Ferdinand's record of injuries, will play a part but it doesn't have to be a key one given that Ferguson also has Chris Smalling and Jonny Evans to cover. Young, bought for pound stg. 3 million ($4.7m) less than Stewart Downing, looks the bargain of the summer. United's attacking was uncharacteristically predictable at times last season, and Young adds a dimension. He could also be the set-piece king lacking since Cristiano Ronaldo left. Ferguson still hasn't signed a creator to replace Paul Scholes but even if targets such as Wesley Sneijder, Samir Nasri and Luka Modric elude him, he'll feel United can cope given Scholes's limited contribution last season and Rooney's new deeper position.
Fabio Capello feels it's "impossible to predict" who'll win the title until this transfer window closes. "Arsenal and Tottenham need to buy some players, United are looking for Sneijder and Modric. At the end of the market, you can more or less understand what will happen," the England manager said.
He has a point, but City will also be right up there even if it makes no more signings before August 31.
City has the deepest squad in Europe and young, improving players such as Vincent Kompany, Joe Hart, David Silva and Yaya Toure, who made great contributions last season and can do even more this time. The big "ifs" involve Carlos Tevez. In the next 24 days a club -- most likely Inter Milan -- will either cough up the gazillions required to release poor little Carlito from his pound stg. 250,000-a-week purgatory or the window will close and Roberto Mancini will know he's keeping the Argentinian. Nobody has scored more EPL goals over the past two seasons and if Tevez goes the loss to City cannot be overstated. If he stays, how much can Mancini -- not the world's best man-manager -- get out of him?
The attacking part of City's game must improve. Time and again, United wins titles through its ability to put away the "lesser" teams. City dropped points against Sunderland, Birmingham and Aston Villa last season. Now Mancini is acclimatised to the Premier League, there is no excuse for pound stg. 27m Edin Dzeko to look like a Bosnian lamppost again, while Mancini expects this to be a breakthrough season for his crackpot protege, Mario Balotelli. "I speak to Mario every day and I need a psychologist," joked Mancini, who played down an outburst from Balotelli about being homesick. "Sometimes I've been disappointed with him but sometimes I understand his behaviour," Mancini said. The luxury for City's manager is the extraordinary options half-a-billion pounds of squad investment buy and, even if Dzeko and Balotelli fail and Tevez leaves, there's the new pound stg. 38m signing, Sergio Aguero. "He can play as a No 9 or No 10 and left or right. In one or two years he can be a first striker but now he could play behind Dzeko, Carlos or Mario," Mancini added.
Can London compete with Manchester? Andre Villas-Boas' brief but gilded CV suggests he'll be a top manager at Chelsea, but Carlo Ancelotti was a top manager. Villas-Boas' speciality is motivating and there may be a new mental edge to their play that makes Chelsea better, but problems remain -- the age of leading players and the puzzle of how to assimilate and revive pound stg. 50m Fernando Torres.
Though Cesc Fabregas is still likely to leave Arsenal, he was not a key contributor when the Gunners were riding high last season and, with Jack Wilshere's development and Aaron Ramsey's return, it's conceivable Arsenal could challenge without him. Gervinho is a good buy but Arsene Wenger is losing time to use this transfer window to improve his defence.
Including the pound stg. 58m lavished on Andy Carroll and Luis Suarez in January, Liverpool is the biggest spender of the year. But not, when you look at the buys, apparently the wisest. Liverpool will be harder to beat thanks to Kenny Dalglish and Steve Clarke but won't win enough games to mount a title challenge. Spurs need to make signings before the window closes but, without the Champions League to sap them, could do better than last season.
Ferguson expects his "noisy neighbours" to draw confidence from winning last season's FA Cup and make a racket in the title race. I agree, but thanks to their experience, their manager and to Rooney and Hernandez, I would bet on United -- just -- to drown out City.
There can be times when the Premier League seems woefully unlike the hype. Bolton 0 Southampton 1 in September 2001, a dire 4-5-1 fest in my first weeks of reporting on it, almost made me flee back to the gnarled bosom of the Scottish Premier League.
But no competition, not the World Cup nor the Champions League, delivers the same spectacle. With the Premier League's 20th season about to begin, some will cancel their pay-TV subscriptions, bin their season tickets or decide weekend afternoons would be better spent at the garden centre. But not many.
The 2010-11 season was not a vintage edition of the "Best League in the World" (trademark) but 2011-12 promises much better. If relegated Blackpool was the most entertaining side last season, this time the theatre should revolve round the top end of the league. Every one of the leading clubs looks in a position to improve. Manchester City should be more assured, Arsenal more mature, Chelsea more inspired, Liverpool more cohesive, Tottenham more potent. But Manchester United -- who should be more fluent -- remains the team to beat.
Whether the champions retain their status depends less on the impact of Ferguson's new signings -- though his summer transfer business has seemed impressive -- and more on the effect of existing stars. Wayne Rooney had a dismal 2010-11 until February, when an iconic goal against City revived his genius, while Javier Hernandez spent the first part of last season as an impact substitute. A full season of those two, in top form, would make Ferguson's team formidable.
United's right flank was a weakness until Fabio established himself as a more convincing fullback than Rafael, his brother, and Antonio Valencia returned from injury. More from them will also see United improve, while Tom Cleverley and Danny Welbeck, on loan last season, are useful prospects to have back.
That's not to minimise the importance of new arrivals David de Gea, Ashley Young and Phil Jones. Most rests on goalkeeper De Gea and while it's improbable that, in a debut season, a young foreign rookie will entirely fill the gloves of Edwin van der Sar, the Spaniard's pre-season displays have been encouraging. Phil Jones, given Rio Ferdinand's record of injuries, will play a part but it doesn't have to be a key one given that Ferguson also has Chris Smalling and Jonny Evans to cover. Young, bought for pound stg. 3 million ($4.7m) less than Stewart Downing, looks the bargain of the summer. United's attacking was uncharacteristically predictable at times last season, and Young adds a dimension. He could also be the set-piece king lacking since Cristiano Ronaldo left. Ferguson still hasn't signed a creator to replace Paul Scholes but even if targets such as Wesley Sneijder, Samir Nasri and Luka Modric elude him, he'll feel United can cope given Scholes's limited contribution last season and Rooney's new deeper position.
Fabio Capello feels it's "impossible to predict" who'll win the title until this transfer window closes. "Arsenal and Tottenham need to buy some players, United are looking for Sneijder and Modric. At the end of the market, you can more or less understand what will happen," the England manager said.
City has the deepest squad in Europe and young, improving players such as Vincent Kompany, Joe Hart, David Silva and Yaya Toure, who made great contributions last season and can do even more this time. The big "ifs" involve Carlos Tevez. In the next 24 days a club -- most likely Inter Milan -- will either cough up the gazillions required to release poor little Carlito from his pound stg. 250,000-a-week purgatory or the window will close and Roberto Mancini will know he's keeping the Argentinian. Nobody has scored more EPL goals over the past two seasons and if Tevez goes the loss to City cannot be overstated. If he stays, how much can Mancini -- not the world's best man-manager -- get out of him?
The attacking part of City's game must improve. Time and again, United wins titles through its ability to put away the "lesser" teams. City dropped points against Sunderland, Birmingham and Aston Villa last season. Now Mancini is acclimatised to the Premier League, there is no excuse for pound stg. 27m Edin Dzeko to look like a Bosnian lamppost again, while Mancini expects this to be a breakthrough season for his crackpot protege, Mario Balotelli. "I speak to Mario every day and I need a psychologist," joked Mancini, who played down an outburst from Balotelli about being homesick. "Sometimes I've been disappointed with him but sometimes I understand his behaviour," Mancini said. The luxury for City's manager is the extraordinary options half-a-billion pounds of squad investment buy and, even if Dzeko and Balotelli fail and Tevez leaves, there's the new pound stg. 38m signing, Sergio Aguero. "He can play as a No 9 or No 10 and left or right. In one or two years he can be a first striker but now he could play behind Dzeko, Carlos or Mario," Mancini added.
Can London compete with Manchester? Andre Villas-Boas' brief but gilded CV suggests he'll be a top manager at Chelsea, but Carlo Ancelotti was a top manager. Villas-Boas' speciality is motivating and there may be a new mental edge to their play that makes Chelsea better, but problems remain -- the age of leading players and the puzzle of how to assimilate and revive pound stg. 50m Fernando Torres.
Though Cesc Fabregas is still likely to leave Arsenal, he was not a key contributor when the Gunners were riding high last season and, with Jack Wilshere's development and Aaron Ramsey's return, it's conceivable Arsenal could challenge without him. Gervinho is a good buy but Arsene Wenger is losing time to use this transfer window to improve his defence.
Including the pound stg. 58m lavished on Andy Carroll and Luis Suarez in January, Liverpool is the biggest spender of the year. But not, when you look at the buys, apparently the wisest. Liverpool will be harder to beat thanks to Kenny Dalglish and Steve Clarke but won't win enough games to mount a title challenge. Spurs need to make signings before the window closes but, without the Champions League to sap them, could do better than last season.
Ferguson expects his "noisy neighbours" to draw confidence from winning last season's FA Cup and make a racket in the title race. I agree, but thanks to their experience, their manager and to Rooney and Hernandez, I would bet on United -- just -- to drown out City.
