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| Masters Golf |
Phil Mickelson is the favorite as he is the defending Champion and is coming off an impressive record breaking win at the Shell Houston Open this past weekend. There have been just four men in the history of the Masters to win the Masters and the Tournament held the previous week. Mickelson is one of them and the last to turn the trick.
For those interested to watch before the major networks begin coverage of the event you can find eight different video feeds, including coverage of Amen corner (Nos. 11, 12 and 13), Nos. 15 and 16 and two featured groups at www.masters.org
Each hole has a unique name that matches the appearance and character of the hole. Amen corner is number three of the toughest series of holes in succession in all of golf and are punishing even to the slightest miss hit or misdirected golf shot. As a result they are by far the most intriguing and exciting to watch. As the saying goes you can’t win the Masters on Thursday, but you can certainly lose it on Thursday. Moreover, the Masters truly begins on the back nine Sunday.
From 1908 to 1999 six different European players won the Masters a total of 11 times. Since then four non-American players have won and none of them have been from Europe. Perhaps it is time to look at the European roster for a possible wager.
What truly makes the Sunday back nine so incredible to watch is the fact that there are no other group of holes that offer every possible risk and reward opportunity for the golfer. Holes 13, called the Azaleas, and 15 called the Firethorn are par 5 holes, but are reachable in two shots, but to do so requires a precise shot from lies that are not always on level ground. The greens are well protected by Ray’s Creek and offer no sympathy to the golf shot that does not have the right spin, the right distance, and the right trajectory.
The 15th, for example, is just 530 yards long, which is almost a par 4 by U.S. Open standards, but it contains some of the toughest, most pressure filled shot making in all of golf. Even if a golfer chooses to layup on the second shot the third shot is extremely difficult as well. So, in this brief introduction you already see how mentally taxing Augusta is on the best golfers in the world.
So, the golfer we bet on must have a tremendous mental focus and level headedness, not allowing the mind and heart rate to race during good and bad holes. All Champions have essentially stated that staying in the moment is first and foremost to having any chance of success on the golf course.
The keys to winning at the Masters is many years of experience playing the Masters, the ability to hit the ball very high and long and to have a mastery of the short game. Oh yes, I forgot to mention putting as well. The Champion ALWAYS has a great week putting the billiard tables at Augusta, but the Champion also has the shot making skills to leave the ball below the hole and still have reasonable birdie opportunities.
The Following golf bets can be found at Bodog and Pinnacle Sports
Mickelson is a 3* bet to finish in the top-5 listed at 11/8. He has made eight starts and has made all eight cuts winning once last week at the Shell Houston Open. He has posted a 69.82 scoring average versus a Tour average of 71.18 strokes per round. He is driving the ball nearly 300 yards at 296.7 and has improved greatly in making the correct decision when and when not to hit the ‘Big Lumber’. He knows where to hit the ball on every hole and has the extensive experience of a Champion to execute the game plan again.
Moreover, he has been given a late starting time on Thursday, which suits him extremely well based on his comments recently. This gives the opportunity to see how the rest of the field is playing and then shoot a number that keeps him close, choosing patience instead of aggressive with his shot selections. Then Friday he will have an early tee time where the greens will be in perfect condition and absence of spike and ball marks and then choose to be moderately more aggressive with his shot making and put up a low score while most of the field has not even played through nine holes.
Tiger Woods
I have rarely bet on him to win at any of the Majors since 2006 and I strongly believe you are better off buying the latest basketball shooting book issued by Butler University. Seriously, he has not won in nearly three years on tour and is going through what he has stated is a major swing change. This is by far the longest period of time where a new swing has taken this long to master and for him to exploit his great new swing in a Major. Even at 10/1 odds, which is some of the highest Tiger has ever been granted, they are far too low based on how he is playing entering the Masters.
For the season he has entered four tournaments and made four cuts, but has achieved only one top-10 finish. He has four rounds under 70 strokes and eight of 70 strokes or more this season. The one Tournament was the Accenture Match Play where strokes are not counted, but head-to-head matchups are won by the number of holes won over an opponent.
Most importantly, he does not have ‘magic’ with his scrambling that he once had. Periodically that ability reappears, but it is far from the consistent standard he once had. A Champion needs to scramble well and needs to putt well, both of which Tiger is nowhere close to being at Championship level. David Schwabb also thinks Tiger is over rated in the betting odds coming into the Masters.
Geoff Ogilvey
Ogilvey is a great putter and he is the past winner of the U.S. Open so he is well acquainted with Majors golf. He has also been putting very well this season ranking 22nd averaging 1.736 putts per green in regulation. A green in regulation is simply taking the par for the hole and subtracting two shots. So, a green in regulation for a par five would be getting a ball on the putting surface in three shots; a green in regulation for a par four would be getting the ball on the green in two shots. If it takes more than that then the extra shot puts the hole into the ‘scrambling’ statistical category.
He also ranks 21st on tour in sand saves at 58.8% of those opportunities to be in a bunker and still save par. This is a critical part of the Masters as well. Undoubtedly you will see players ‘chopping’ out balls and these shots that are made from above the hole have no chance of staying within 15 feet of the hole. So, any player in a bunker above the hole or short siding the green will be have a 90% chance of recording a bogey.
I like Geoff Ogilvy at 50/1 odds.
The REST
I like the field at 10/1 at both Bodog and Pinnacle. With Tiger struggling and really only Phil Mickelson playing at a very high level, this may be the one Masters where a ‘dark horse’ or ‘Tin Cup’ driving range pro type hoists the Masters Trophy on Sunday.
Sources: http://www.sbrforum.com
